I think what's also telling is Polymarket's non-reaction to this. If there are obvious concerns that the outcome was manipulated, I'd expect them to invalidate the bet - otherwise they're effectively incentivising manipulation.

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solumos 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Polymarket is simply an exchange for these sorts of “contracts” and the results are verified by a separate entity (it’s a DAO, which of course can be manipulated, and was the subject of controversy due to some Venezuela invasion-related “market” resolutions)

	▲	HDThoreaun an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Poly market resolution has a long history of controversy. Going back years now the DAO has essentially scammed users with questionable resolutions.

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arealaccount 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If anything this was great free advertising for their platform

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mint5 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

No no no, the outcome revealed new information as the market intends! That info is that people had discounted the rare weather event “a 10% chance of localized hairdryers” on the day in question. The bettor predicted this better than everyone else, making their info public by placing a bet!!! /s