This whole prediction market space seems like a 2026 version of ball and cup game betting. Most of the people participating fail to understand that they (and their pointless bets up for harvesting) are the product here.

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david-gpu 4 hours ago | parent [-]

My intuition is that it is a lot like sports betting: many laypeople bet for what they hope will happen, rather than trying to beat the market earnestly.

The winners, as you point out, are the house and those with insider knowledge.

	▲	tyre 3 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		It’s extremely like sports betting, because the vast majority of their volume is sports betting.
	▲	Ylpertnodi 4 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		... like a horse that is held back for a while and comes in at 23-1.a