Agreed with you. Non argumentative, just want to add to the convo: what's even more crazy is the cognitive dissonance around this idea.

> There is no task that takes me a day that they can complete in five minutes.

It's highly dependent on task. I was watching a podcast with Simon Wilson, where he said something like, (paraphrasing) "My whole selling point as a dev was that I could ship POCs / MVPs fast. Now that's somewhat obsolete."

It resonated with me because I feel like that also was a skill that I cultivated and excelled at. I agree with Simon's general thesis: that skill is largely dead. There are many pedants and detractors that will race to the defense of this art with various arguments to try to challenge the idea, but they simply do not hold up to reality. I have non-programmer friends with 10 dollar claude code subscriptions whipping up products to solve niche problems in their life / job.

I offered to help one of my friends who's working on generating math exams based on curricula and seed problem sets. I taught him how to use git, he pushed the repo, I looked at the repo and it wasn't clear he needed me. Everything I could do would be related to scale / reliability / optimization. They don't need any of that, they just need to prompt the ai to say, "go burn some subscription tokens for my AP Calc track this year." There's a whole saas and c2c industry built around this problem that this guy just solved for 10 bucks a month.

Of course, there's much more depth to engineering then just cranking out prototypes. There is still "real engineering" to be done, and software will likely start focusing more towards specification / verification.

But a lot of the industry was built around the idea of speed of delivery / time to market to explore product fit and rapidly iterate. IMO frontier llms (private and open weights) have this largely solved. I can build and test ideas that would have taken me a weekend last year in half a day now, the majority of that time I can be talking to the llm via matrix while I'm out in the world.