At the current rate, open sourced models are expected to surpass cloud models within a couple years based on a study I read a couple days ago.

Looking back at chatGPT and claude a couple years ago, very small Qwen models are basically equal in coding to what those cloud based models could do then. Also factoring in scaling laws, a 9b going to 18b is roughly a 40% increase, whereas 18b to 35b is 20%, I expect there will be a change of at least price in cloud based models.

Adobe used to be $600 per month, then it became $20 when distribution scaled.

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baxtr 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

While this might be true I’m worried about the hardware side of things.

What if you have a good enough model but the cloud model providers are better in procuring hardware for interference?

	▲	pheggs 2 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		I personally believe that eventually manufacturers will want to sell more of their hardware and look for ways to sell hardware to consumers. isnt that situation quite similar to the days of early computers? I am for sure biased in hoping that will be the case
	▲	zozbot234 2 hours ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		The cloud providers are probably better at procuring hardware for inference, but on prem users are better at repurposing hardware that they'd need anyway for their existing uses. In a world where AI compute is likely inherently scarce, it makes sense to rely on both.
	▲	gleenn 3 hours ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		Local inference is definitely going to make more and more sense. Modern CPUs have all this amazing hardware well-optimized for inference purposes. I use a lot of web tools and see AI baked in and it feels weird. I want the smartness localized for speed and data security. I think and hope the industry points towards smart ai agents operating as locally as possible.
	▲	Gigachad 2 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		You’ll be able to run the open models on any cloud at the cost of the hardware rental. While the closed models will try to mark up beyond the base cost.

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sakjur 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Adobe used to be $600 per month, then it became $20 when distribution scaled.

What product is this referring to? I haven't heard about Adobe having any offering that is quite that expensive?

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great_psy an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If you have a link to the study you read, please share it.

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Traubenfuchs 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What were all the datacenters for???

	▲	robinsonb5 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Those would be the Pork Futures Warehouse from Discworld.