Most people do not know that we are in an icehouse phase, which is rare.

Earth spends most of its time in greenhouse phases.

"A "greenhouse Earth" is a period during which no continental glaciers exist anywhere on the planet... Earth has been in a greenhouse state for about 85% of its history.

"Earth is now in an icehouse state, and ice sheets are present in both poles simultaneously... Earth's current icehouse state is known as the Quaternary Ice Age and began approximately 2.58 million years ago... Earth is expected to continue to transition between glacial and interglacial periods until the cessation of the Quaternary Ice Age and will then enter another greenhouse state."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_and_icehouse_Earth

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AlotOfReading 5 hours ago | parent [-]

We'll be much closer to a greenhouse earth than a glacial earth if we get that 4°C warming, so the distinction is more academic than practical in most contexts. What's a century here or there in geologic time?

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timschmidt 3 hours ago | parent [-]

The Cambrian and Eocene reached around +14C compared to today[1]. Two of the warmest periods in Earth's history, granted. But life thrived. Governments, private property ownership, civilization, not as battle tested.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record#/m...

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reverius42 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Hmm. I do like civilization. How about humans, would human life thrive?

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timschmidt 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

No reason not. It would push human habitable zones into the high mid-latitudes and subpolar regions though. 55–65° N/S would be closest to comfortable temperatures. So, northern Canada and Russia, Greenland, Antarctica.

The mad rush to get there would likely extract a heavy toll.

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rwyinuse 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The main problem is agriculture. If rain patterns get severely disrupted in most of world's current breadbaskets, it takes time to increase production in areas that may now have more favourable climate. During that time lots of people would starve.

Rain patterns and extreme weather events are the things to really worry about. Temperature changes alone can be mostly dealt with by planting different crops.

	▲	reverius42 2 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Oh, yeah, like even if it's survivable for humanity in general, it's going to kill billions of humans.
	▲	timschmidt 2 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		No doubt the transition period would likely involve more death than most catastrophes in history. In part because there are simply more people. Available sunlight is also less nearer the poles, which already affects agriculture in places like Greenland. Crops would shift. We'd be more dependent on energy and supplemental light for certain crops. Adjustment would be difficult. But quite a bit of land would still be habitable.

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exe34 10 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> The mad rush to get there would likely extract a heavy toll.

Climate refugee situation will dwarf any war refugee issues. They claim "invasion" now, but this one will be an actual invasion.

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reverius42 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Interesting. Paying close attention to geopolitics lately, it kind of seems like we're already in a slow-motion mad rush to own these places. Remember when Trump almost invaded Greenland?

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timschmidt 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Certain investment firms purchased cold-weather ports which were iced in 8 months a year, 20 years ago, which now operate nearly year-round.

	▲	reverius42 an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Sounds like a good long term investment. And maybe not that long term!

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avadodin an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

I know civilization sounds appealing but have you considered giant dragonflies?

	▲	VorpalWay 17 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		From what I read recently (and I don't remember where it was), the current thinking is that it wasn't oxygen levels or temperatures, but the lack of predators that let dragonflies grow that big. A big dragonfly is much slower and an easier target. So unless you get rid of birds, you won't have giant dragonflies.

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lukeify 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

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