Love the analysis. Everything I am seeing says that the energy market is a dead man walking - the catastrophic damage is already done, we are just slow to realize. Refineries and other intermediary processes cannot absorb the disruption, but it is slow to work through the system.

One thing I have been wondering is how much buffer can hold out from the undeniable pain surfacing. The strait used to carry ~20 million barrels a day, say with clever pipeline re-routing, oil from the region is still delivering 10mbpd. We are two months in, so that is some 600 million barrel deficit. Global reserves (minus China) were thought to be 1.2 billion barrels before this started.

With reserves cut in half, I am stupefied at how calm the markets are taking this.