People keep framing it as tinkerers versus normies. That's not the real problem.

The real problem is that prior to verification, Google can't ban ICE tracking apps (or whatever the next problematic government doesn't like) from Android, and after verification they will be able to for most users.

They say they won't do that. I might even believe the people currently running things won't do that, but they will be incentivized to do that in the future, and incentives are much better at predicting outcomes than intent.