`Is it really going to have ecosystem effects?`

Will mandatory ID gatekeeping of developers have ecosystem effects? Surely the only question is how much? You may install apps over ADB every day, but APK installing is much more convenient and open-source F-Droid developers currently don't have to do a thing to be "allowed" to ship APKs.

`The entire point here is to prevent scam actors from using a false sense of urgency to defraud people.` The proposed architecture is a general developer gate, it is not a proportionate response to the problem - it isn't even proposing to gate specific app permissions, it's being able to install the apps from APKs at all under a regime they administer, with users forced to have this change with no prior consent, only opt-out, and distribution limiting work-arounds (that harm reach).

If Android were to ask the user if they wanted to disable installing downloaded apps from developers who haven't shown Google IDs for their own safety, and let end users give informed consent about what self-protection behaviour level they want for their system, at the point of roll-out, or device setup, that would be quite different.

Why should Google be trusted to gate what apps can be easily shared, when stock Android won't even allow users to toggle Internet access per-app? It isn't proportionate compared to other permissions they could mediate, and worse, it's a centralised architecture vulnerable to authoritarian pressure, and afterwards they will be well positioned to lock it down more.