What are you defining as good and successful?? ChatGPT has 800M+ WAU, that seems pretty good and successful to me (not financially but they have time).

AI companies aren't selling coding tools. Claude Code is not a coding tool! It's a tool that does coding, which is subtly different. The total addressable market for a coding tool is all developers, which is maybe 25-30M people worldwide, the total addressable market for people who need code written is potentially around a few billion or so, maybe more.

I'd like to see one of the major AI players demonstrate a successful exit. I don't think Coreweave counts here, because their long-term success is so tightly tied to the AI bubble continuing forever, which it probably won't. I want to see a strong company emerge from the bubble and start delivering real, sustainable value to its customers and investors. That would convince me it's possible to build a decent product and a real business on LLM AI technology.