| ▲ | estearum 8 hours ago |
| IMO prediction markets are an interesting tool but you can just ban sports gambling and keep 100% of their value and remove 90% of their downsides. |
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| ▲ | rapind 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Prediction markets are 90% sports gambling. |
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| ▲ | estearum 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | So? | | |
| ▲ | rapind 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | So prediction markets solely exist as a way to sidestep regulation of sports gambling (mostly) and insider trading secondarily. It's just grift. | | |
| ▲ | estearum 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | That conclusion doesn’t follow from the premise at all lol. Low-effort complaining, not interested. |
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| ▲ | neaden 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I'll be honest as someone who doesn't gamble my perception is the prediction markets are just people with inside information using that to con money out of people. I don't see the value in it. |
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| ▲ | estearum 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Well if you think of the point as "winning money" then that really sucks (which I've discussed in prior comments as a big problem for overall participation). If the point is instead to extract and compress information into a simple numerical prediction, then the insider trading is arguably a feature more than a bug. Not to say it shouldn't be viciously punished, to be clear. |
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| ▲ | idle_zealot 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Can you explain the value you're talking about? |
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| ▲ | estearum 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | Highly liquid markets are good information compression systems, but existing financial markets tend to be impossible to disaggregate with regard to any discrete event you care about. |
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| ▲ | vkou 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| You can also ban 100% of gambling advertising and get 100% of the (dubious, but I'll humour the possibility) 'benefits' of gambling, while removing 90% of the downsides. |
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