> 1) The pipeline to Fujairah has capacity of 1.5m barrels per day, i.e. less than hald of UAE's current oil production. They still need Hormuz badly.

Not quite. ADCOP was carrying 50% of UAE production (1.5-1.8 million bpd) and is being ramped up significantly. OPEC had limited UAE's output to 2.9-3.5 million bpd thus far and since the conflict UAE has been targeting 5 million bpd. With this announcement the dependence on Hormuz is being lessened drastically.

> 2) They can gain by increasing their production, IF they can get that out through Hozmuz. And IF (after Hormuz is opened) other OPEC+ countries DO NOT decide to do the same and the price of oil collapses.

As pointed out above Hormuz is being bypassed with ADCOP's capacity being ramped up. I am willing to bet, this announcement is what will get Iran to seriously consider removing its blockade of Strait of Hormuz since its main leverage will be gone. A good example is Russia's loss of leverage over Europe when most of the EU countries cut their dependencies on Russian Oil/Gas since the start of the Ukraine war.

> 3) US did not meaningfully came to their help. The high-end air defense systems were reserved/moved to Isreal. They mostly defended themselves, with the stuff they bought over the years from the US. A slightly cynical take would be 'classic protection racket'.

Most of UAE's equipment is from the US. See US approves $7 billion more in weapons for UAE - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-approves-7-bill... and U.S. Considers Financial Support for Oil-Rich U.A.E - https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/business/economy/us-uae-f... Only recently have they started diversifying with a major defence deal with South Korea.

> 4) The national interests of other OPEC members are best served by being united against greater forces from outside region, not by fracturing and bickering among themselves. This is classical divide and conquer.

Nope; OPEC/OPEC+ exists only to serve the interests of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The others went along since money was rolling in anyway. But now the geopolitical situation has changed and every member has to look after its own national interests.

1) any sources for 'is being ramped up significantly'? To what capacity? 2) how much are you willing to bet? :-) 3) selling them arms and then causing a conflict where they expend those arms is a protection racket, not a help 4) stating claims does not make them true. Is it in their interests for the oil prices to collapse? It is a classical prisoner's dilemma. Coordination helps all of them. Being on their own allows external players to target/influence each of the small ones separately, at their weakest. Classical divide and conquer.