The billions being thrown at openai and anthropic are speculative

You don't need numbers when the person responsible for the numbers says they are bad.

Oh you want numbers?

Here’s a number: 3.5

That’s the number of years until we achieve AGI according to Sam Altman: https://techresearchonline.com/news/sam-altman-predicts-agi-...

This company’s current valuation is entirely speculative. So if you’re going to criticize the article, maybe direct some of that skepticism towards the company in question.

Ah that explains handing models over to AWS to run in their data centers

Claude and Claude Code are still quite useful even when considering the recent degradations, so I don't think corporate users will leave easily especially considering that they're subsidized by their companies. I think the most likely scenario is that Anthropic will remove the Max ($100 / $200) subscriptions (which were the sweet spot for most users) and opt for token-based prices instead, which will make the average cost 2x ~ 3x higher which will keep them afloat in terms of ROI. Performance will plateau though since model research cannot sustain itself any longer, and then it's only a matter of how fast the open-source Chinese models will catch up in efficiency.

OK sam

As were a lot of big companies, like Amazon, until they weren’t.

Gustafson would hard disagree with you, while Amdahl shares your pessimism.

I think Gustafson has better receipts... His main argument is that software will update to take advantage of new parallelism in hardware. And that's definitely been the case.

AI has ridiculous levels exploitable parallelism. It'll scale up and out.

Yeah exactly. It’s pretty certain that the AI bubble will burst. A few companies will have a hard time and disappear. For everyone else though, this will just be headlines in the news and AI will continue as it was.

or so Sam Altman hopes

the more people talk the bigger te chance of it bursting so lots of people will just stay mute hoping it is not the time yet.

crazy idea but how about we force them to become a public entity since their entire product is built on our stolen IP?

No? Generally, competition is considered good

Why? I don't mind both of them going out of business.