> American AI was financed on a particular bet. The bet was that frontier models would be the next great monopoly business

> The collision between those two facts — that American capital paid for a moat, and that the technology no longer provides one — is the most important force in the AI industry today.

> The open-weight ecosystem did not arrive in stages. It arrived in a wave. In late 2024, a Chinese lab named DeepSeek released a model

Looking at the assertions above, anyone passingly familiar with AI over the past few years will tell you that open weights and open research were the norm until OpenAI GPT-3 came along, and even then they were forced to release GPT-OSS by the market. So what technology moat? There has never been one in AI. Training 100B+ or trillion+ parameter models in expensive runs was potentially a moat, until the chinese startups showed in short order that it could be done for $6 million a run. Even the CUDA monopoly seems to be ending.

Also, no evidence referenced to back up any of the assertions. How do they know that the bet was that the frontier models would be the next great monopoly business? Especially when there were many from the outset: GPT, Anthropic, Llama, Deepmind, etc. etc.

I'd argue that the wholesale replacement of labor was and is the driver behind the capex, not monopoly dreams.

The starting premises appear to be, well, faulty. Whither the rest of the article?