This seems like a wildly unlikely risk. Innovations in this space are just mathematical ideas, easy to write down in a paper and replicate.

It’s much more likely that performance will plateau and open weights will catch up asymptotically

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oofbey 19 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Mathematical ideas are very difficult to protect. But models can also be improved with brute force improvements in size. Imagine Mythos is a 32 trillion parameter model for example. That could be very difficult to replicate even though everybody knows exactly how it works.

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echelon 19 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> It’s much more likely that performance will plateau and open weights will catch up asymptotically

I really don't think so. This almost never structurally happens.

I think it'll be more like Linux on the Desktop.

Or Ubuntu on the smartphone.

Or Firefox.

We'll have open weights, but 99% of everything will go through hyperscalers.

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esseph 19 hours ago | parent [-]

> I really don't think so. This almost never structurally happens. > I think it'll be more like Linux on the Desktop.

I think it will be Linux on the server, or the one that runs your watch, your phone, the radio or infotainment system in your car, maybe your thermostat, a bunch of medical devices and military devices, running in space shuttles and space stations and... You get the point. It's on everything.

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echelon 17 hours ago | parent [-]

The smartphone is the most important piece of infrastructure in the modern world, yet we have basically two vendors.

Unless something dramatically changes, that's the world we're in for.

Chinese foundation model providers are releasing fewer weights as they "catch up", not more. There's little incentive for anyone to dump on the market if they can't collect the proceeds.

	▲	rapind 12 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		> There's little incentive for anyone to dump on the market if they can't collect the proceeds. Foreign state actors are not lacking incentives when the entire US economy is propped up by overvalued and overhyped AI. Like dumping a model that runs at Opus 4.6 brains at a fraction of the price on non-nvidia hardware.
	▲	esseph 14 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		> The smartphone is the most important piece of infrastructure in the modern world, yet we have basically two vendors. > Unless something dramatically changes, that's the world we're in for. If you limit LLM use to cellphones, maybe, but that seems awful silly right now. And why would you when there's so many B2B or B2C tools and products for it to go in. No reason to consider the market to be that constrained IMO.