I also suspect that there are many "slow-moving", Microsoft heavy enterprises but with in-house devs that can't get anything but Copilot approved, and Microsoft trusts this will remain so.

It's not turning consumption based because there are a ton of these licenses just sitting idle.

As a single data point, this is absolutely true. At my current "Big Corp", Copilot was immediately approved while Claude is entering month 2 or 3 of trying to get approval.

Additionally, we got copilot for every user, including those that never write code or use AI tools.