I don't necessarily agree that's likely, but is it even the case that Mistral is more expensive than GPT or Claude? My understanding is that it's cheaper, which means it would fare worse in the scenario you're describing, unless they've perfectly calibrated the quality-cost tradeoff better than any American company.

All they have to do to survive is have enough cash flow to pay for their operating costs.

By providing specialized long-term services to corporate clients, they are securing exactly that.