There is also risk from a US regulatory side as recent drama around antrophic showed.

Don’t think it’s inconceivable that the clowns in power decide to limit api access out of the blue one day because someone whispered a conspiracy theory in someone’s ear. API blockade…

See also the constant flip flopping on what cards NVIDIA can export - no consistency in stance or coherent policy

You are conflating three very different things.

The thing with Anthropic and the military was about whether vendors can tell the military what operations it's permitted to do. It has no bearing on the commercial sector, and isn't actually about AI.

The thing with NVIDIA cards is a continuation of how we've restricted tech exports for quite a while. You can find old news articles about game consoles being export-restricted over nuclear proliferation concerns. This AI-related one was about whether or not custom AI models are relevant to national security, and whether restricting graphics card sales can have a meaningful impact on them.

Any issue with selling chat tokens internationally would be more akin to the recent tariff shenanigans.

Changing your LLM inference provider is the easiest switch in technology I can think of. It's quicker than taking off the case of your phone and putting on a new one.

Enough hardware and good models exist now that if you do get blocked from one place that viable alternatives do exist.

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