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beloch 14 hours ago

The following phases are likely:

1. Build-out and Competition: (current phase) Multiple AI companies write down massive debt while building data centres and offering sweetheart deals to customers in an attempt to dominate the market. The financial numbers will be silly by design in this phase because it's all predicated on obliterating/outlasting the competition so you can move on to...

2. Enshittification and Exploitation: With most competition wiped out, the survivors will have to pay their debts. A chainsaw will be applied to every corner that can be cut (and many that shouldn't). Prices will be jacked up mercilessly.

3. Maturity: Eventually, once debts are paid down, the technology will reach the point where it's cheap and omnipresent. It might be good. It might not be. e.g. Web search is "mature", but it kind of sucks right now.

AI users are going to become more efficient in how they use it and they're also going to learn when AI is appropriate to use and when it isn't. AI itself will likely improve long-term, but it may get worse at times. It's definitely going to get much more expensive. The math is going to change during each of these phases. Businesses who torch their human capabilities and become dependent on AI during Phase 1 are headed for rough sailing in Phase 2.