> While nobody actually believed Putin would be dumb enough

I'm not sure why you'd say nobody thought they would invade. To me it was clear in December the year before when the Russian navy began sailing the long way around Europe, getting in the way of Irish fisherman and confirmed days before the invasion when they had stockpiled medical personnel and blood on the front lines.

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anonymars 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

When the US warned, days before, of the imminent invasion, the broad reaction was still one of "the boy who cried wolf"

	▲	_heimdall an hour ago \| parent [-]
		And I didn't understand why anyone thought the warning was wrong. Who sends their navy around Europe, collects 100k troops on the border, and ships blood reserves to the front for a training exercise?

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lotsofpulp 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It was clear when they captured Crimea.

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_heimdall an hour ago | parent [-]

Sure that plays a role for sure, though I don't think anyone in 2014 was predicting a broader invasion 8 years later.

	▲	lotsofpulp 36 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Crimea was Feb 2014, and then in Jul 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight 17 was shot down by "pro russian separatists" in eastern Ukraine. Seems like they were laying the groundwork for a while. I have no idea what portion of this wikipedia article is true: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya_(confederation) But it seems Ukraine had questionable control of the eastern parts of the country long before the 2022 "official" invasion.