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echelon 5 hours ago

Everyone is arguing why I'm wrong or that I should have presented more data.

You've got the real insight with this claim.

This is the way the world is moving. Open source isn't even going where the ball is being tossed. There is no leadership here.

You're spot on.

If the cost to deliver a unit of business automation is:

    A. $1M with human labor

    B. $700k human labor + open source models

    C. $500k human labor + $10,000 in claude code max (duration of project)

    D. $250k with humans + $200k claude code "mythos ultra"
The one that will get picked is option "D".

Your poor college students and hobbyists will be on option "B". But this won't be as productive as evidenced by the human labor input costs.

Option "C" will begin to disappear as models/compute get more expensive and capable.

Option "A" will be nonviable. Humans just won't be able to keep up.

Open source strictly depends on models decreasing their capability gap. But I'm not seeing it.

Targeting home hardware is the biggest smell. It's showing that this is non-serious, hobby tinkery and has no real role in business.

For open source to work and not to turn into a toy, the models need to target data center deployment.

kube-system 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah, I don't wanna shit on open source, there will certainly be uses for all different kinds of models.

The real money in this market, though, is going to be made in the C suite, and they don't really care about the model. They don't care if it's open source, closed source, or what it is. They don't want to buy a model. They're interested in buying a solution to their problems. They're not going to be afraid of a software price tag -- any number they spend on labor is far more.

Labor is something like 50%+ of the Fortune 500's operating expenses -- capturing any chunk of this is a ridiculous sum of money.