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eclark 8 hours ago

Be careful with initial impressions of metrics. We as humans have a heavy tenancy to anchor to our first judgments or impression. We see a win and assume the win is long term, with no downsides, and dependent on the new information/change.

So combine that with the Hawthorne effect and new business or health initiatives that can look great simply because participants notice change and notice the increased attention. However many human patterns have a tendency to regress to the mean.

Personally I have seen this a lot with developer tools and DevOps. A new SEV/incident/disaster happens and everyone rushes to create or onboard to a tool that would help. Around the office everyone raves about it and is sure that it would fix all issues. And the number of commits goes up, or the number of SEV's in an area decreases for a while. People were paying attention, after a while the tool starts to slow down or not be as used. It's got rough edges that weren't seen or scenarios that were supposed to be supported never get fully integrated. Eventually the patterns regress, but with more tools and more complexity.

- https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1936999/

- https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.12893

burnte 5 hours ago | parent [-]

> We as humans have a heavy tenancy to anchor to our first judgments or impression.

One of my lifelong guiding quotes: The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. - Richard P. Feynman

> We see a win and assume the win is long term, with no downsides, and dependent on the new information/change.

Not me. I've had a hard life and I've worked incredibly hard to get here. I'm a little more loss-averse and focus on what can go wrong, not what went right. It's far too easy for us to become complacent. All in all I'm not your average CIO at all. I'm extremely technical, got my experience as an IT consultant for years and learned business by doing. Since moving from consultancy to employed life, I took the time to get several certifications and even did an MBA about a decade ago.