> There is a population of qualified workers in the software sector, and only new grads and retirement can move the needle significantly.

“Qualified” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Just like the first dotcom boom and crash, there were people in other fields who got into software during the boom time and went back to whatever other field after the crash.

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eloisant 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Also there isn't one profile of software developers.

At least 3 tiers: the FAANG level, the mid-size tech companies, then all the developers working for non-tech companies/administration or in IT service companies.

Even in those categories, workers aren't swappables.

	▲	wakawaka28 a day ago \| parent [-]
		If they're not swappable, that supports my claim about scarcity even more. But I also have people here saying that you can swap in anybody vaguely technical, sometimes without credentials at all, to fill these roles even at FAANG. I happen to think workers with minimum qualifications like a CS degree can be fairly swappable, at least more than FAANG types would have us believe. But they're very elitist when it comes to hiring. I have practically given up on being hired at FAANG companies, and these days I think their jobs are overrated too. Sign up to bust your ass 50 hours per week with backstabbing snobs, till you get laid off unceremoniously. I'd rather not.

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wakawaka28 a day ago | parent | prev [-]

That might be true but how many of these people are there, really? I'm not convinced that many companies are hiring these barely-qualified people.