We don't have any NAEP long-term test results for years between 2012 and 2020, because they were canceled due to budget cuts[1], so we can't use the linked data to determine whether the decline started before or during COVID.

We do have the NAEP main series test results[2]. At a first glance at the math results[3][4], it appears they peaked in 2013, then fluctuated through 2019, then dropped significantly in 2022 and somewhat rebounded in 2024, which really does suggest COVID.

[1]https://www.edweek.org/teaching-learning/debate-flares-anew-...

[2]https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/report_archive.aspx

[3]https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/highlights/mathematics/202...

[4]https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reports/mathematics/2024/g...

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nradov 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Could we look at average SAT scores by year as a proxy? It's not a great metric because not all students take the SAT but I think there's some correlation.

https://blog.prepscholar.com/average-sat-scores-over-time

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jjk166 5 hours ago | parent [-]

There was a major change to the SAT design right around the start of the period of interest which seems to have caused scores to jump.

	▲	pirate787 5 hours ago \| parent [-]
		The change was in fact designed to make the scores jump. The purpose is compressing the top scores to allow universities to be more subjective and still have high averages