|
| ▲ | kemotep 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Is the internet bigger or smaller than it was in 1998 compared to today? Demand for internet and web services is significantly higher today than in 2000 but a bubble still popped. Heck a regular old recession or depression, completely unrelated to AI could happen next year and could collapse the industry. I mean housing is more expensive than ever nearly 20 years after collapsing in the Great Recession. |
| |
| ▲ | NitpickLawyer an hour ago | parent [-] | | The problem that I have with dotcom comparisons is that people miss what popped and what remained after that bubble. Catsdotcom and Dogsdotcom popped. But the tech remained, and now we have FAANG++. If we apply the same logic, any of oAI, xAI, Anthropic might pop, but realistically they won't, and even if they do, some other players will take their spots, and the tech will survive, and more importantly the demand will still be there. This cat isn't going back into the bag. People want this now. More than all the providers can give them. Today. The demand won't suddenly disappear now that "we got a hit" like someone put it recently. |
|
|
| ▲ | vibe42 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Both are possible; increasing demand and bubble collapse. The way this could happen is if model commoditization increases - e.g. some AI labs keep publishing large open models that increasingly close the gap to the closed frontier models. Also, if consumer hardware keep getting better and models get so good that most people can get most of their usage satisfied by smaller models running on their laptop, they won't pay a ton for large frontier models. |
|
| ▲ | hgoel 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| There's a massive amount of demand at the current price point, this does not exclude a bubble considering that the current cost to consumers is lower than what capacity expansion costs. Though nowadays it feels like the bubble is going to end up being mainly an OpenAI issue. The others are at least vaguely trying to balance expansion with revenue, without counting on inventing a computer god. |
|
| ▲ | redsocksfan45 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| [dead] |