I don’t necessarily disagree but to provide some counter points:

1. Model providers are currently profitable when just counting the cost to serve tokens for inference[1]. They lose money training the next generation of models.

2. Open models don’t work nearly as well. Given that tokens are still relatively cheap, and hallucinations are expensive, I’ve not seen a huge up tick in open model usage for coding agents yet.

3. On the AI economy front, I really have no idea, but AI companies (meta, msft) have already come down in value. It seems investors are at least a little wary of AI over valuation. Of course, the stock market is not the economy, but it’s not clear where warning signs would be. Earnings are healthy.

1: https://martinalderson.com/posts/no-it-doesnt-cost-anthropic...

2: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/20/a...

Your point 1 and point 2 live in direct tension. The reason the closed models are better is very likely that they are paying so much to train them.