I struggle to understand what OpenAI would look like in a counter factual.

Like Anthropic? Due to Altman being a lying psychopath, most of the talent left OpenAI, which is now fighting for its life -- but now they can't claim to have moral high ground or the best researchers anymore; profitability's the only way out remaining to them.

Who knows? It could have always ended up this way anyway. But Altman had a pretty big role in summoning his own competition.