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tim-projects 16 hours ago

The era of optimisation is finally here. I'm excited.

HerbManic 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I said it for many years that OS developers need to focus on over optimisations. If it wasnt a chip sgortage it would be the ever slowing progress on chip scaling.

But software optimisation helps all hardware and that doesnt drive sales.

Linux however, they dont have to worry about that. Maybe it is finally the era of Haiku OS as the ghost of BeOS rises!

jeff_vader 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Wait until China invades Taiwan.. (ok, it's not too likely, but what if?)

Renaud 16 hours ago | parent [-]

I think RAM shortages would be the least of our problems…

Assuming China takes TSMC in one piece (unlikely without internal sabotage in the best case scenario), it would still probably take years before it produces another high end GPU or CPU.

We would probably be stuck with the existing inventory of equipment for a long time…

necovek 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I am surprised we consider TSMC like a natural resource: isn't it really a combination of know-how and build-out according to that know-how? If smarts leave the country, perhaps this moves with them.

The risk with China taking over Taiwan is that they mostly expedite their own production research by a couple of years.

ndepoel 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It kinda does resemble a natural resource though. The machines and technology in use at TSMC are so insanely complex, that there isn't a single person on earth who knows everything about how it works. TSMC functions only because of all of the pieces of the puzzle being together in the right place and arranged in just the right way. It's a very fragile balance that keeps it all running, and a major disruption could mean we get thrown back by a decade in chip-making technology.

michaelt an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> I am surprised we consider TSMC like a natural resource: isn't it really a combination of know-how and build-out according to that know-how?

Have you seen how many states and countries look enviously at Silicon Valley’s tech companies, China’s manufacturing dominance, or London’s financial sector and try to replicate them?

Turns out it’s way harder than you’d expect.

Hell, Intel can’t match TSMC despite decades of expertise, much greater fame, and regulators happy to change the law and hand out tens of billions in subsidies.

danaris 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What you say is absolutely true, and is a serious problem—but the way our system operates does not allow us to correct for it.

Anyone trying to spin up a competitor to TSMC would have to first overcome a significant financial hurdle: the capital investment to build all the industrial equipment needed for fabrication.

Then they'd have to convince institutions to choose them over TSMC when they're unproven, and likely objectively worse than TSMC, given that they would not have its decades of experience and process optimization.

This would be mitigated somewhat if our institutions had common-sense rules in place requiring multiple vendors for every part of their supply chain—note, not just "multiple bids, leading to picking a single vendor" but "multiple vendors actively supplying them at all times". But our system prioritizes efficiency over resiliency.

A wealthy nation-state with a sufficiently motivated voter base could certainly build up a meaningful competitor to TSMC over the course of, say, a decade or two (or three...). But it would require sustained investment at all levels—and not just investment in the simple financial sense; it requires people investing their time in education and research. Dedicating their lives to making the best chips in the world. And the only reason that would work is that it defies our system, and chooses to invest in plants that won't be finished for years, and then pay for chips that they know are inferior in quality, because they're our chips, and paying for them when they're lower quality is the only way to get them to be the best chips in the world.

RajT88 5 hours ago | parent [-]

China is 10 years into what you describe, no?

roughly 3 hours ago | parent [-]

> the way our system operates

They have the other system.

RajT88 2 hours ago | parent [-]

This bit, I mean:

> A wealthy nation-state with a sufficiently motivated voter base could certainly build up a meaningful competitor to TSMC over the course of, say, a decade or two (or three...).

mcwhy 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

the scientists will switch sides with minimal issues, like they did after WWII