This was my thought. If these markets continue allowing insiders, it’ll drive all of the cash from regular people away. So there will be way less money for insiders to win even if they are allowed.

So the perception of insiders is pretty bad for prediction markets as a business imo.

The sooner they knock off the rhetoric about the “theory” behind prediction markets and start thinking about it like a business, the sooner they will take insiders seriously.

▲

a2128 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think the market could adapt if regular people left. Insider trading would become multilayered and complex. Insiders would scheme against lower-level insiders; decisionmakers would try to trick insiders into thinking that one thing will happen before doing the complete opposite thing. The world would become more erratic and unpredictable, even insiders wouldn't know what is going on.

Although Polymarket is currently spending a lot of money trying to market itself to working-class regular people to get hooked and scam their paychecks out of[0]

[0] https://nypost.com/2026/02/12/us-news/nyc-gets-its-first-fre...

	▲	crazygringo 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I mean, the thing is, insiders will disagree. Nobody has a crystal ball to predict the future perfectly. Military operations go awry. Countries react in unexpected ways. Leaders change their minds. And as a potential event gets closer, insider information changes. Different insiders have different sets of partial knowledge. You don't even need scheming and tricking. Just regular reality is already complicated enough.

▲

lostlogin 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> If these markets continue allowing insiders

What are the chances of large bets being made by anyone who isn’t an insider?