I saw a tweet about a trader placing an oil bet when they saw two military aircraft turn around on their way to Iran, via transponder. I believe before the deal was announced.

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3eb7988a1663 6 hours ago | parent [-]

That also sounds easy enough to fake for some plausible deniability.

	▲	yellow_postit 4 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Just as parallel construction [1] is used by law enforcement to conceal methods and practices no reason to not expect the same for financial gain. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_construction
	▲	huorricannes 4 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		in fact US army publicly admitting running a disinformation campaign involving flying planes knowing they would be seen by osint in the previous Iran attack from last summer