Prediction Markets require insider trading to function... how do people not know this? It's a setup from day one. If you have the knowledge, you're going to cash in, if you don't have the knowledge, you are throwing your money away.

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firebot 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Most gamblers prescribe to the cost sunk fallacy and keep 'one more time'ing it to bankruptcy.

Math wins over your feels every time.

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OutOfHere 6 hours ago | parent [-]

If you follow your math, such gambling losers don't really have that much money to bet on an ongoing basis. The ones who support the losing side on prediction markets are the ones who usually do fine, but sometimes are taken by surprise.

	▲	bigfatkitten 5 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Problem gamblers routinely take out loans, mortgage major assets, max out credit cards, and steal from their employers to fund their habits.
	▲	casey2 6 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Statcon 101: Gambling addicts take loans to gamble, those loans are sold to your pension fund. Who is the loser?

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mr_00ff00 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> But traders weren’t just active on Polymarket: there were similar surges of oil futures trading activity just hours before Trump announced updates to the conflict that would lower oil prices.

Prediction markets are all the buzz, but banning them isn’t fixing the problem. This has happened forever. Let’s not forget there was an unusual amount of put option buying right before 9/11: https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jnlbus/v79y2006i4p1703-1726.ht...

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TZubiri 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The theory would be that the people without information pay for knowledge. Or to hedge against certain events.

Similarly to how people would pay premium over inusrance

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UncleMeat 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I've never seen an ad from either Kalshi or Polymarket that says "don't play if you aren't an insider."

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jjav 6 hours ago | parent [-]

The game only works if they also have a lot of people losing money.

	▲	b0Ringmth 5 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Yeah just another Ponzi scheme; one sided extraction with a slight chance of payout that never comes Stephen Miller and Charlie Kirk were pretty clear their sides whole philosophy is take and never give back. They learned it was OK not from their parents but gen pop sitting on their hands. The entire economy is Las Vegas now; only the (white) house wins

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DANmode 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

potentially, each time.

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nojito 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

>Prediction Markets require insider trading to function.

And yet there are folks like me who have been on them for years before kalshi/polymarket making a very good side income from them without having insider knowledge.

Prediction markets as a whole are very very inefficient. That's not to say that insider trading doesn't exist but you can't claim that they require insider trading to function.