> both camps, but the problem is that they contradict each other

They don't strictly contradict each other because they are not mutually exclusive. Both methods are valid

> This leads me to believe that most people either get lucky and then apply a framework in retrospect to justify their luck

Definitely a thing. Survivorship bias.

> tried to build, calibrate, engage in SEO, talk to customers, but I can't seem to find traction

Are you speaking with people? Face to face, in person. That's more important than the online marketing methods at first. Manual onboarding.