> This leads me to believe that most people either get lucky and then apply a framework in retrospect to justify their luck

Yes, congratulations on finding the truth.

This is the pattern 95% of business, psychology and other pseudoscience is built upon.

The 2 main system reasons behind it: 1) any complex system cannot be really calculated farther in the future than a very short timeframe 2) natural human brain tendency to organize the observed universe into patterns.

The good news is that if you keep buying lottery tickets your chances of winning at least once also grow.