Did you do a ton of research to make those picks? These days I just do broad market ETFs, don't trust myself to beat the market.

Nope. I just think about the probable shape of the future, and who benefits.

I stick with the fields I know and understand - tech, engineering, sciences - don’t go for long bets so much as “if this relatively predictable set of circumstances arises, who will inevitably benefit”.

For example, in 2017 I was keeping abreast with ML research, and realised that within a decade this stuff was going to be huge - so I bought Nvidia and their supply chain and sat on it. Also Tesla as I figured as if I saw them as an adjacent incumbent beneficiary of an AI boom, then others would, too.

I’ve followed that chain of logic through - caught the nuclear renaissance in its entirety, as well as predictable resource squeezes.

So - that’s just one of my trees of bets - but my whole thesis is “predict a future, model out what that looks like, place bets accordingly”.