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ls612 5 days ago

Presumably ASML can increase production if demand is high enough the question is over what time frame. 5 years seems plausible to me but I honestly don't know what that number is.

vessenes 5 days ago | parent [-]

It's ... really long, according to Dylan Patel on the Dwarkesh Podcast. The supply chain is extremely deep and complex.

juliansimioni 4 days ago | parent [-]

Yes. And the fab companies and their suppliers are deliberately and wisely slow to scale up production to meet short term changes in demand. They've seen the history of the semiconductor industry, it's constant boom and bust cycles. But they have the highest op-ex costs of anyone. So when the party's over they are the ones who pay for it the most.