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SanjayMehta 6 hours ago

The claim of 30,000 dead in the crackdown is dubious. It originates from a doctor turned fashion blogger turned independent journalist called Deepa Parent[1] and doesn't have any other evidence to support it. (The Dresden fire bombing required tons of munitions and the toll was 25,000).[2]

Now having said that, given the nature of the Iranian theocracy, they are quite capable of such acts. Remember that they have hanged homosexuals from cranes,[3] and executed rape victims.[4] But 30,000 in two days [5] is an extraordinary claim which requires more evidence, certainly more than circular references tracing back to just one source.

[1] https://thegrayzone.com/2026/02/01/guardian-iranian-death-to...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Dresden

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Asgari_and_Ayaz_Marhon...

[4] https://www.timesnownews.com/lifestyle/people/crime-against-...

[5] https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601255198

Edit: added [5]

throwawayheui57 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If you really want to get informed about the protests in January and the death toll start looking at Amnesty’s report and you’ll see the 30000 is not dubious. Cherry picking who reported on a piece of news doesn’t invalidate the content of it.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2026/01/what-hap...

6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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mulmen 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> The Dresden fire bombing required tons of munitions and the toll was 25,000

For clarity 3,900 tons over four raids and 1,500 planes.

I’m not sure how to translate that into modern munitions but I’m also uncertain why a strategic bombing death toll should tell us anything about Iranian protester deaths. Iran isn’t doing strategic bombing of their citizens, they’re using small arms across hundreds of locations.

The linked article cites a source [1] with detailed methodology for their actual claim of 7,000 deaths and mentions that other unmentioned sources claim it could go as high as 30,000. I don’t see any claim of that being in a single day.

Given the timeframe and widespread nature of these protests it doesn’t seem implausible.

[1]: https://www.en-hrana.org/the-crimson-winter-a-50-day-record-...

shykes 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

A better comparison would be, say, the 1944 Oradour-sur-Glane massacre. 642 French civilians were killed in one afternoon by approximately 150 SS infrantrymen.

Or the Babi Yar massacre, where 33,771 Jews were murdered over the course of two days, by approximately 300 to 500 SS and German policemen.

vixen99 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Not everyone's up in their WW2 history: Just as a reminder: "In four raids between 13 and 15 February 1945, 772 heavy bombers of the Royal Air Force (RAF) and 527 of the United States Army Air Forces (USAAF) dropped more than 3,900 tons of high-explosive bombs and incendiary devices on the German city of Dresden." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Dresden.

at-fates-hands 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

>> But 30,000 in a day

The number was given over two days, not one.

The protests were in over 200 cities with 5 million+ participants, WE KNOW they fired live rounds this is undeniable if you only had 200 deaths per city you would reach a death toll north of 40k already. Yes it's not verified yes there isnt a video of exactly 30000 identifiable bodies side by side. But the number really isnt as unachievable as people make it out to be.

From another article: The 30,000 figure is also far beyond tallies being compiled by activists methodically assigning names to the dead. As of Saturday, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said it had confirmed 5,459 deaths and is investigating 17,031 more.

https://www.aol.com/articles/iran-protest-death-toll-could-1...

The mass murdering of 5,400 people is nothing to scoff at, on any level, even over two days.

saint_yossarian an hour ago | parent | next [-]

We also "know" Mossad had agents provocateurs there and was supplying weapons to dissidents. And since the war on Iran started it seems pretty obvious those "peaceful protests" were part of their regime change operation.

mulmen 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> The number was given over two days, not one.

Was it? I can’t find that in the linked article. The source for the ~7,000 deaths linked near the only instance of “30,000” says it was over the first fifty days.

SanjayMehta 5 hours ago | parent [-]

It's not in this article but in others. I'm skeptical because the original source is that fashion blogger.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601255198

mulmen 4 hours ago | parent [-]

It’s unclear where the 30,000 comes from because the article doesn’t cite a source for that number. You’re drawing an unsubstantiated connection between two (or more?) articles so you can invoke and then discredit a specific reporter.

At this point I’m not sure what you are even talking about but you seem to have an agenda.

SanjayMehta 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You're right: two days.

4 hours ago | parent [-]
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