Prediction markets don’t need to surface private knowledge, they can surface sophisticated interpretations of public knowledge. They are certainly gambling if you’re an unsophisticated rube (which is most of the users).

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curt15 4 hours ago | parent [-]

How does one "interpret" public knowledge to time bets so accurately right before Trump's announcements?

	▲	Karrot_Kream 4 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		I mean that's why insiders are being investigated right? But sometimes the answer is more difficult than it seems. Is a mid level military officer an insider? If you overheard a conversation on Capitol Hill are you an insider?
	▲	fontain 3 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		First, you’re describing the insider trading that is not permitted. Second, the majority of prediction markets are predicting utterly mundane things like sports. The tiny number of news grabbing markets are not representative.