In order to enter the mainstream market and challenge the consumer OS duopolies, a new OS needs at least two things:

1. Retail presence

2. A large advertising budget

This is why it's so difficult to challenge the existing duopolies on desktop and mobile. If a consumer can't walk into a retail store, see a device on the showroom floor with the new OS installed by default, and buy a device with the new OS installed by default, then the new OS has zero chance of becoming mainstream.

Among other reasons, this is why Linux has failed to go mainstream. Linux has no retail presence, and it's not advertising to consumers.

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takluyver 3 days ago | parent [-]

And to underscore the scale of that challenge, Microsoft couldn't make Windows Phone a significant competitor to Android & iOS.

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lapcat 3 days ago | parent [-]

I suspect the app ecosystem was a problem with Windows Phone. iOS and Android already had a head start of a few years, with Windows Phone not appearing until late 2010, and "Windows" was a bit of a misnomer, because desktop Windows apps couldn't run on the phone, so the preexisting software ecosystem didn't help.

	▲	takluyver 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		Certainly the app ecosystem was part of the challenge, and Microsoft spent a fair bit of effort trying to both encourage developers to make apps, and filling obvious gaps (like Youtube) itself. If their resources, retail connections and brand recognition weren't enough, it's hard to imagine that anyone else stands much chance until conditions change drastically.