The only real viable long-term business model for these constellations are for the military or other socialized use.

They are completely unprofitable otherwise. Eventually even Starlink will lose money, as more and more rural regions around the world are wired for fiber.

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brandon272 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

I find this hard to imagine. There are so many rural customers where it is totally uneconomical to run fiber vs. just paying for Starlink.

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readitalready 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

There really aren't that many people around the world that would make Starlink profitable in the long run. Only about 1% of the global population are farmers, so that already limits your market. And the moment a village is formed, the economics favor fiber to that village over Starlink.

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pstuart 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

5G internet seems to be a decent compromise for that -- much simpler infra at least.

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brandon272 2 days ago | parent [-]

I might be biased because I live in an area where it is fairly easy to find locations that don't have cellular coverage and won't have cellular coverage anytime soon.

Globally, there's a lot of places that are sparsely inhabited but too remote to warrant strong cellular connectivity. There's also a lot of "nooks and crannies" geographically that are not well served by cellular. As an example, I have a property in an area with excellent 5G coverage but my specific property is in a valley removing line of sight between me and the local tower, meaning reception is virtually nil. I can't even make a phone call. Without Starlink my only option would be to rely on a local WISP to set up some kind of repeater system that would have far lower reliability/performance and significantly higher cost.

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saltcured 2 days ago | parent [-]

Yes, but the question is what fraction of the population is in these niches and does that provide enough subscription revenue to fund the constellation?

If many others find a cheaper and more reliable path, the customer base collapses.

	▲	brandon272 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		Well, my point is that these niches are probably more commonplace than people who live in areas blanketed by multiple 5G providers probably assume. I'm sure there are Starlink customers using it as an option in some interim period while they wait for fiber to be rolled out to their neighbourhood or town, but anecdotally, I don't know any Starlink customers who are in that boat. We exist in locations that will not be served by cheaper, more reliable terrestrial options anytime soon. Even "cheaper" is quickly becoming a question mark. Starlink is offering 100mbps plans for $50-$70/mo. which in my region makes it cheaper or on par with options from cellular providers (which are capped) or options from cable/fiber providers.

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testing22321 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

>more and more rural regions around the world are wired for fiber.

Ecuador has the highest rate of cell phone ownership in the world, because they never built landlines and just went straight to wireless.

Same with electricity in many African countries -no grid, straight to local solar.

When I see comments like this it’s obvious you’re talking about West Virginia or Nevada as “rural regions around the world”

Go spend time in the Canadian arctic, the Congo, Sudan, Bolivia, Mongolia, Remote Australia and dozens and dozens more if you want to see where starlink shines and is rapidly changing the world.

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readitalready 2 days ago | parent [-]

ok but that just makes Starlink even more unprofitable, as now you're limited by the number of customers.

The moment these people incorporate into a village, it becomes more profitable to build a fiber connection. Fiber will eventually get to Ecuador.

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brandon272 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

A limited total addressable market doesn't necessarily have anything to do with profit potential.

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testing22321 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Starlink was never supposed to be for anyone that can have fibre.

There are billions of potential customers.

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readitalready a day ago | parent [-]

lol no. There are probably 50-100 million potential customers. The rural farmer in India isn't going to buy Starlink.

	▲	testing22321 a day ago \| parent [-]
		Every analyst ever said cell phones wouldn’t take off across Africa because there isn’t enough money. They were all completely wrong.