> The adoption isn't there yet.

It's worth noting that after ~50 years[edit: to preempt nitpicking, yes I know we've been using computers productively quite a bit longer than that, but that's roughly the time when the computerized office started to really gain traction across the whole economy in developed countries], we've only extracted a tiny proportion of the hypothetical value of computers, period, as far as benefits to the economy and potential for automation.

I actually think a lot of the real value of LLMs is "just" going to be making accessing a little (only a little!) more of that existing unrealized benefit feasible for the median worker.

My expectation is that we'll also harness only a tiny proportion of the hypothetical value of LLMs. We're just not good enough at organizing work to approach the level of benefit folks think of when they speculate about how transformational these things will be. A big deal? Yes. As big a deal as some suppose? Probably not.

[edit: in positive ways, I mean. I think we're going to see huge boosts in productivity to anti-social enterprises. I'd not want to bet on whether the development of LLMs are going to be net-positive or net-harmful to humanity, not due to the "singularity" or "alignment" or whatever, but because of the sorts of things they're most-useful for]

it's an interesting question: how much more productive would we all be if we were all as savvy/literate/productive with computers as some hypothetical comparator (I'm not sure programmers are the right comparison to make)?

for example, i am in operations and strategy, but have always wanted to be more technical because i could see the value for many many tasks. however, the learning curve was steep and so learning and doing other things drove better returns for me.

now, LLMs make learning basic concepts and executing simple tasks extremely easy, and i am realizing a higher level of productivity then previously; i used codex to do a test data migration and then evaluate the data quality. i could simply not have done this previously, but it is a meaningful change for me, that i can execute on this.

there is no maintenance burden: i don't have to keep the code alive. it simply sped up an otherwise manual and non repeated task.

i think that's what's so interesting and concerning about this technology: i think power and productivity will flow more broadly across the workforce. this will result in relative winners and losers, and some who will experience no real change at all.

similarly to the costs and benefits of mobile devices diffusing technology access; it changed some things, it created winners and losers and yet our daily lives are recognizable to someone from 50 or even more years ago.