> The interesting question to me at the moment is whether we are still at the bottom of an exponential takeoff or nearing the top of a sigmoid curve.

Even using the models we have today, we have revolutionized VFX, video production, and graphics design.

Similarly, many senior software engineers are reporting 2-10x productivity increases.

These tools are some of the most useful tools of my career. I don't even think the general consumer public needs "AI" in their products. If we just create control surfaces for experts to leverage and harness the speed up and shape and control the outcomes, we're going to be in a very good spot.

These alone will have ripple effects throughout the economy and innovation. We've barely begun to tap into the benefits we have already.

We don't even need new models.

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ryandrake 2 days ago | parent [-]

> Similarly, many senior software engineers are reporting 2-10x productivity increases.

But are they making 2-10x compensation compared to before these tools? If not, these tools are not really useful to you, they are useful to your employer. The most shocking thing I find about LLM-assisted development is how gleefully we are just handing all this value over to our employers, simultaneously believing that they are great because we're producing more. Totally bonkers!

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echelon 2 days ago | parent [-]

> handing all this value over to our employers, simultaneously believing that they are great because we're producing more.

You could turn the table and say that you can now launch your own business with far fewer resources.

Who needs financial capital if you can do it all with solo / small team labor capital?

Gossip Goblin ditched his studio and now a16z is trying to throw him money, which he's turned down. He's turning everyone down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Rzl7nUdEs4

Dude is legit talented and doesn't need studio capital anymore.

This is the end of the Hollywood nepotism pyramid, where limited production capital was available to only a handful of directors.

We're kind of at the start of a revolution here. I'd be way more worried if I were Disney or Paramount.

Couldn't you take a sabbatical and end it with a brand new SaaS you own and control? That's entirely within reach now.

The people this is going to hurt are the ICs that don't have a go-getting type personality where they take full-stack ownership: marketing, branding, design, customer relationships, etc. If you can do those things, you're going to be a rock star with total autonomy.

You ought to see what the indie game devs are doing with AI (when they aren't getting yelled at on Steam by the haters). It's legitimately incredible. Game designers are taking on full-stack ownership over the entire experience, and they're making some incredible stuff.

	▲	ryandrake 2 days ago \| parent \| next [-]
		> If you can do those things, you're going to be a rock star with total autonomy. What percentage of developers can do these things? 1%? 0.1%? 0.01%? A very small percentage of developers have the desire to take on the full-stack, the temperament of good entrepreneurs, the product judgment of good Product Managers and ability of good Project Managers to juggle dependencies and timeframes. What about the rest of them? The remaining 99+% of us are just handing value over to our employers and getting a 5% raise in return--if we're lucky. So, the fact that a small percentage of rockstar developers can capture the full value of AI-assisted development reinforces the point that a small number of people/businesses are capturing that value. The vast majority of workers are not capturing any value.
	▲	gilfaethwy 2 days ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		So... a tiny fraction of people get to capture the value again, and at even greater environmental (and thus societal) cost than before? Wow, what a world.