The math here isn't what you assume it is. It isn't "most markets resolve to no"; it's "markets consistently value 'yes' too highly", and there is some evidence for the latter.

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fooker a day ago | parent [-]

Go on, give it a try for a few days.

My point is equally valid for "markets consistently value 'yes' too highly".

The occasional 'no' will wipe you out on average.

	▲	lxgr a day ago \| parent [-]
		I have no idea if the bias is strong enough to profitably trade on it (or whether it even exists). But your statement seems stronger, i.e. that such a strategy is somehow fundamentally and inherently impossible, so I think it's on you to explain why that is supposedly the case. For example, assuming a hypothetical consistent "yes" bias of 10%, would you still say it's impossible? Why? Basically, are you saying it's impossible because of the actual observed "yes" bias being too weak or for some other reason?