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m-hodges 2 days ago

Not my project, but author said on X:

> Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets resolve as No?

https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043398710013595857

gruez 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

That logic doesn't work because not every bet have even payouts. If there's a market for whether a dice rolls 1 or not, the odds might resolve to "no" 83% of the time, but if it only pays you $1.1 per dollar wagered on "no", you're still losing money.

2 days ago | parent [-]
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2 days ago | parent | prev [-]
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