> So according to my math, the estimated size of the Spanish economy in 2026 is about the same as the 2023 Spanish economy (within 1%). Hard to claim that as a win.

That conclusion does not seem to check out just by eyeballing the charts.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?location...

It shows a divergence from the EU back in the 2010s, but afterwards is recovering at the same pace or even faster than the EU. Could be better, but not "in shambles" either.