> What leverage does US actually have here? Even Israel for that matter?

Arguably, in a continous war setting Iran eventually runs out of money to pay its soldiers or build new misiles. Especially if their oil facilities are bombed.

I dont think iran can physically keep this up long term. The counter balance to that is usa cannot keep this up politically even in the short term.

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kumarvvr 2 days ago | parent [-]

The money thing is true. But China and Russia will extend support.

Iran is collecting about 2 million USD from each vessel through the strait. And they are about 50 passing through them each day. That's 100 million USD per day. Or about 30 odd Bullion USD per year.

Plenty of money to spend on war and some more. Not to mention the money it earns from selling it's oil and blocking GCC oil.

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YZF 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Russia is in no position to support anyone. See their support of their friend Assad where they actually had military presence. They'll provide intelligence and targeting info like they've been doing.

China doesn't seem that interested to help the regime. They'll get their oil from any regime. They'll sell them stuff but I don't see them paying the salaries of the IRGC.

There are not 50 vessels passing per day and also the US is now threatening a blockade. If Iran's oil terminal is bombed as is the threat then it's unlikely Iran will allow other vessels through. Likely most of the few vessels that are passing today are carrying Iranian oil.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3w39lg84w2o

19 ships since the ceasefire by 17:00 BST on 10 April.

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bigyabai 2 days ago | parent [-]

> Russia [will] provide intelligence

> China [will] sell them stuff

Being able to import advanced munitions and coordinate them with satellite intelligence is basically all Iran wants/needs. They're not interested in hiring Chinese mercenaries, sustaining a surface fleet or keeping planes in the sky - they need leverage, and their allies are giving it to them.

The support being offered is serious business, and I'm surprised that you'd write it off because Russia won't install an Iranian tripwire force and China won't cut IRGC paychecks.

	▲	bawolff 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		Will china sell them advanced munitions in a significant number? So far its been mostly dual use materials, and maybe some manpads if you believe rumours. China has a tendency to play both sides when it comes to the middle east, so its a bit of an open question to what extent they are willing to support Iran if it starts to affect their relationship with other middle eastern countries. And of course "sell" is an important word here - is that good enough for iran or do they need free support given their economic sutuation. So to be clear, its not nothing, but i'm still a bit unconvinced that either of thrm are willing to help Iran enough to actually save it.

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Gud 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> Iran is collecting about 2 million USD from each vessel through the strait.

No they aren’t. They’re collecting ¥14M.

Maybe nitpicking, but I believe this is the most important change to come out of Israel’s and USA’s war against Iran. The petrodollar is dead, and this will have severe long term consequences for the USA.

	▲	WarmWash 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		Oil is dead so we shouldn't sweat it. Once boomers rotate out of power and people who still have plastic brains take over, the rotation away from oil will speed up dramatically. Right now it's looking like $5/gal is a surety, and we might even see $6. All the people paying $80 to fill up their eco car are going to be wondering if not being able to drive 7 hours once a year without stopping for a 30 minute charge is really worth it for sticking with gas.