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beloch 2 days ago

“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement, and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America,” Vance said.

“So we go back to the United States having not come to an agreement. We’ve made very clear what our red lines are.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/12/jd-vance-says-...

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It was clear the U.S. was not serious about these negotiations when they sent Vance. It's also clear the U.S. doesn't have the cards to end this conflict by force. They can use drones to clear the straight of Hormuz of mines, but that won't address all the other methods Iran has to threaten shipping. Any military measure short of the full occupation of Iran will likely fail to reopen the straight. The U.S. plainly lacks the resources to occupy a country four times the size of Iraq without allies, and the Iranians know it. The U.S. is going to have to bend on some of its red lines and actually negotiate in order to reach a deal.

Many countries are standing back and waiting for the Americans to fix their own mess, but for how long will they wait? At what point do these nations lose patience with the constant economic disruption and look for coercive measures to force the U.S. back to the table?

kumarvvr 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

> when they sent Vance

It was Iran's demand that they will not speak to Witkoff or Kushner, who were the original morons in this fiasco. They wanted only Vance on the table, most likely because he was against this war and has kept himself away from the whole thing.

> They can use drones to clear the straight of Hormuz of mines, but that won't address all the other methods Iran has to threaten shipping

Iran does not have to even mine or bomb the strait. Them just declaring that they will hit is enough to stop traffic.

> Any military measure short of the full occupation of Iran will likely fail to reopen the straight

I highly doubt even this. Iranian drones have a range of about 1000 km. They can continue to block the strait, even with a ground force. Not to mention that ground forces blitzing through the whole territory will take at-least a year, if not more. That is enough time to plunge the whole world into a recession.

> At what point do these nations lose patience with the constant economic disruption and look for coercive measures to force the U.S. back to the table?

Most nations cannot coerce the US, at least not Trump. What they will most likely do is have secret or open deals with Iran to let their oil through, with a toll tax of course.

techterrier 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Who would they have sent if they were serious?

SpicyLemonZest 2 days ago | parent [-]

Marco Rubio, who was unanimously confirmed by the Senate with a pretty explicit expectation that he would be the adult in the room for this kind of crisis. But he was too busy watching UFC with the President to attend or even monitor the negotiations.