But we’re talking about the risk of a defined set of events that have concluded, not a prediction of the future.

Of course Apollo would have likely had a better average if it had continued, but the risk of the Apollo program, as executed, included things like the first flight of the Saturn V.

If the final empirical mortality result of the Artemis program is 1/30 or less, it will be better than Apollo in that statistic.

A comparison of acceptable mortality is where this discussion began. If Apollo was acceptable at 1/12 (We did it, it was apparently acceptable as the program was not cancelled due to mortality rate) then an acceptable mortality of 1/30 is stronger than Apollo, not weaker.