If I toss a coin four times and it comes up heads three and tails once, it doesn’t mean that there’s a 75% chance that this coin lands heads up. Be careful about conflating risk factor and mortality rate.

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stetrain an hour ago | parent [-]

> If I toss a coin four times and it comes up heads three and tails once, it doesn’t mean that there’s a 75% chance that this coin lands heads up.

No, but it means that to ensure that I do better on my next set of coin tosses I need to beat 3 in 4, not 1 in 2.

	▲	d1sxeyes an hour ago \| parent [-]
		But you doing better is independent of the risk involved. The chances of you getting 3/4 heads or better is around 31%, so theres ~69% chance you’ll do worse next time round. Doesn’t change the fact that each coin toss is still 50/50.