Some people think there will be an exponential takeoff, which means that a 6 month lead effectively rounds up to infinity.

Is this belief grounded on some kind of derivation, or just a prima facie belief?

If it is grounded on a logical derivation, where can one find such a derivation, and inspect its premises?

	▲	Jtsummers an hour ago \| parent [-]
		It's an old idea, "the singularity". The machines become smart enough to improve themselves, and each improvement results in shorter (or more significant) improvement cycles. This leads to an exponential growth rate. It's been promised to be around the corner for decades. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

Those are the people betting on a business model of “create Robot God and ask him for money.” Why pay attention to them?