Open up iOS etc, bring all the servers to EU.

How is that going to work? Apple will still be under the CLOUD Act, so Europe would still be vulnerable. The only solution would be for Apple to fork into two completely separate companies, which is unlikely to happen.

Most likely there will initially just be a lot of chaos, because nobody is prepared for this scenario. There will be huge supply issues, COVID will look like nothing (both in terms of groceries, etc. and getting replacement hardware). Then Europe will on the short term rebase to Chinese/Korean/Taiwanese hardware, with probably an AOSP fork on the mobile side and Linux on the desktop/server side.

But it will be terribly messy. Nobody seems to prepare, because everyone thinks this scenario is unthinkable or they just don't want to put in the effort. Even all the people that I know that are talking about digital sovereignty are still using their iPhones, MacBooks, or GMS Android phones.

I am trying to tell tech people that the time to start switching is to alternatives is now, since tech people are usually early adopters and can help other people. But most switch from GMail to Proton Mail and proclaim victory. January 2026 (remember the good ol' days when the US wanted to take Greenland with force if necessary?) was already forgotten after 4 weeks or so.

▲

mrtksn 2 hours ago | parent [-]

If Apple can't work out a legal structure that works, it will be forced to refund for the devices then so the consumer can use the money to buy compliant devices probably from Korea or China. EU can work out special deal with the Asian manufacturers as there will be hundreds of millions of people with cash in hand looking to buy a high end smartphone.

Being messy isn't a worse outcome than US invasion. Europeans aren't rooting to live like Americans or go to wars for America and the tech thingy will be a nuisance at most.

▲

microtonal 2 hours ago | parent [-]

If Apple can't work out a legal structure that work, it will be forced to refund for the devices

How is that going to happen if the US attacked Europe?

▲

mrtksn 2 hours ago | parent [-]

EU freezes/takes over all Apple assets in EU, users with Apple devices get the money in cash upon delivering their devices. If the money isn't enough for the refunds, a finance mechanism can be created that will be settle after the war.

The returned devices may be sold to 3rd party markets if Apple isn't cooperating.

	▲	microtonal 2 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		EU freezes/takes over all Apple assets in EU Most value/assets are in the US, I don't see how Apple in Europe would have enough interesting assets to refund. If 30% of the 450M inhabitants in Europe have an iPhone and the purchase price was 1000 Euro on average, that would be 135B Euro. I would be surprised if they have a fraction of that in Europe as assets. If the money isn't enough for the refunds, a finance mechanism can be created that will be settle after the war. There are huge assumptions in this, like the EU wins the war, the war doesn't end in a sort-of cold war, Apple cannot get away from liability because it was not their decision, etc. The returned devices may be sold to 3rd party markets if Apple isn't cooperating. Flooding a 3rd-party market with over 100M second hand iPhones would drive down the prices by an extreme amount.