Nobody is forcing anybody to place the bets, but if you see credible money flows into eg. Middle East cease fire bets, you can decide to fill up your tank today, or not. We can’t think for you here, if you don’t see anything useful in the price then it’s time to educate yourself until you do. You should consider these bets more trustworthy than any news you read in mainstream media. There might even be a way to fund journalism here, though ethics are quite muddy indeed.

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GuestFAUniverse 2 hours ago | parent [-]

And what makes you believe that those (basically) peanuts that get bet are the real indicators?

The insiders might as well run a backroom prediction market and just manipulate the public market.

And even with bigger sums: you never know if it isn't just a variant of the shell game. There are no real signals.

	▲	baq an hour ago \| parent [-]
		It's a fallacy to think all insiders are big players. Small fish want a piece, too, and are not constrained in the same ways the big ones are.